Perceptual evaluation

Perceptual evaluation of the voice, commonly and erroneously termed psychoacoustic evaluation, is subjective and is based on comparisons with another voice or with the listener's previous impressions of the same voice. Although it is applied universally, it is terminologically confusing. To increase reliability, continuous training in listening for voice parameters is essential, and frequent tape recordings are needed to facilitate comparisons.     

A simple Markov chain structure for the evolution of credit ratings

We focus on continuous Markov chains as a model to describe the evolution of credit ratings. In this work it is checked whether a simple, tridiagonal type of generator provides a good approximation to a general one. Three different tridiagonal approximations are proposed and their performance is checked against two generators, corresponding to a volatile and a stable period, respectively. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A premium principle based on the g-integral

A novel approach of calculating an insurance premium based on g-integrals and interval-valued integrals is introduced. The characterization theorem for the g-integral-based premium principle is proven, and the relations with some well-known premium principles are discussed. The main properties of the interval-valued premium principle based on the g-integral are presented and some illustrative examples are given.     

Estimation of rating classes and default probabilities in credit risk models with dependencies

Let Y = m(X) + ε be a regression model with a dichotomous output Y and a one‐step regression function m . In the literature, estimators for the three parameters of m , that is, the breakpoint θ and the levels a and b , are proposed for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations. We show that these standard estimators also work in a non‐i.i.d. framework, that is, that they are strongly consistent under mild conditions. For that purpose, we use a linear one‐factor model for the input X and a Bernoulli mixture model for the output Y . The estimators for the split point and the risk levels are applied to a problem arising in credit rating systems. In particular, we divide the range of individuals' creditworthiness into two groups. The first group has a higher probability of default and the second group has a lower one. We also stress connections between the standard estimator for the cutoff θ and concepts prevalent in credit risk modeling, for example, receiver operating characteristic. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic rating of European football teams

^** Formerly Knorr-Held. Email: held{at}stat.uni-muenchen.de In this paper we apply and extend recently proposed methodsfor the dynamic analysis of pairwise comparison data to Europeanfootball teams. Our statistical model is based on the cumulativelogistic link model with time-changing parameters for the strengthof each team. We jointly analyse the results from the five topEuropean leagues from 1996 to 2001 and all international matchesbetween teams from these leagues. We introduce weights for internationalmatches and also allow for a different size of the home teamadvantage in the different leagues. We suggest that the resultsfrom such an analysis may be taken as an alternative to theUEFA coefficient, which is currently used to determine the numberof teams from each league to take part in the European footballcontests.     

On a kind of integrals of empirical processes concerning insurance risk

This paper proves the strong consistence and the central limit theorems for empirical right tail deviations.     

On the consistency of credibility premiums regarding Esscher principle

In this paper, we investigate the problems of convergence of experience-based ratemakings regarding the Esscher principle. In addition to the Bayes and the classical credibility premiums, we suggest a new credibility formula for the Esscher premium. Then we show the convergence of the Bayes and the newly defined credibility premiums towards the individual premium and point out that the classical credibility premium does not generally converge to the individual premium by presenting a sufficient and necessary condition under which the classical credibility Esscher premium converges to the individual premium. A simulation study is carried out to illustrate the theoretical conclusions.     

Sensitivity analysis of the moments of the profit on an Income Protection Policy

The main purpose of this paper is to perform a sensitivity analysis where we quantify and analyse the effects on the mean of the profit on an Income Protection policy and two risk measures of changing the values of the transition intensities. All the calculations carried out are based on a multiple state model for Income Protection proposed in Continuous Mortality Investigation Committee (Continuous Mortality Investigation Reports 1991; 12 ). Within this model, we derive a formula for the mean of the profit, which enables to evaluate it more efficiently. In order to calculate the two risk measures we use the numerical algorithms for the calculation of the moments of the profit proposed by Waters (Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 1990; 9 :101–113). We carry out the sensitivity analysis considering two different situations: in the first situation, we update the premium rates used to calculate the moments of the profit, according to the changes in the values of the transition intensities; in the second one, we do not update the premium rates. Both analyses are of practical interest to insurance companies selling Income Protection policies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多标准等级判别模型在信用评级中的应用研究

在对目前我国信用评级方法应用现状分析的基础上,提出改进的多标准等级判别模型.并将该模型应用于商业银行信用风险评估中.通过对银行五级分类贷款样本的实证研究,证实了该判别模型的有效性和先进性.